This is where I refine how I think about investing
— not advice, just frameworks, tools, and questions worth returning to.
📚 Foundations
First Principles for Navigating Markets
Understand the Game You're Playing
Investing is about allocating capital under uncertainty. Define the playing field
How Markets Actually Work
Markets don't just reflect fundamentals - they amplify expectations, stories, and crowd psychology
The Power of Compounding: Small Edges, Big Outcomes
We tend to think in lines. The world often moves in curves
Interest Rates: The Tide Beneath Every Asset
The price of money moves everything - you don't need to be a macro trader, but you need to watch the tide
Mental Models for Uncertain Markets
Signal in a World of Noise
Thinking in Probabilities
Expected value, and process over prediction
Margin of Safety
Your defence against being precisely wrong
Circle of Competence
A practical guide to finding - and expanding - your circle of competence
Time Arbitrage
Patience is your edge
Capital Cycle Thinking
A contrarian map to industry timing
A Loser's Game
You don't need to hit big winners, just avoid catastrophic losses
Truth is rarely found in the crowd
📊 Valuation Tools & Models
Estimating value, pricing risk, and judging capital efficiency
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
The gold standard
Relative Valuation - Comparable company analysis
Dividend Discount Model (DDM) - For stable, cash-returning businesses
PEG, Growth, and Market Expectations
Using PEG and earnings yield to decode market expectations — with Nvidia as the case study.
Reverse DCF - What's already priced in?
EV/EBITDA and Friends - Measure of core performance
🧠 UK Investing
Intricacies of the UK market
-
Tax-Efficient Investing (UK) - It's not what you make, it's what you keep
👀 Open Interest
- A personal investment thesis on a web3 company
Explore the stack, the thesis, and what comes next
INPP - Yield with a Margin of Safety
- Infrastructure. Income. Undervalued.
📖 Essential Reads
The Education of a Value Investor
Personal growth and investment edge
The Most Important Thing
Risk means more things can happen than will happen
Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
The blueprint for long-term outperformance
🎧 Podcasts
- Interviews on macro, markets, and policy
- Conversations with top investors and thinkers
- Deep dives with founders and fund-managers
- Valuation, markets, and investment thinking
🎧 SuperInvestor Letters
Howard Marks - Oaktree Capital
Understanding risk when others chase return
Margin of safety in an uncertain world
Nick Sleep - Nomad Partnership
Long-term thinking in a short-term world
Conviction meets catalysis
Buy good companies. Don’t overpay. Do nothing