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This is where I refine how I think about investing

 — not advice, just frameworks, tools, and questions worth returning to.

📚 Foundations

First Principles for Navigating Markets

Understand the Game You're Playing
Investing is about allocating capital under uncertainty. Define the playing field​

How Markets Actually Work
Markets don't just reflect fundamentals - they amplify expectations, stories, and crowd psychology

The Power of Compounding: Small Edges, Big Outcomes
We tend to think in lines. The world often moves in curves

Interest Rates: The Tide Beneath Every Asset
The price of money moves everything - you don't need to be a macro trader, but you need to watch the tide

Mental Models for Uncertain Markets

Signal in a World of Noise

Thinking in Probabilities
Expected value, and process over prediction

Margin of Safety
Your defence against being precisely wrong

Circle of Competence
A practical guide to finding - and expanding - your circle of competence

Time Arbitrage
Patience is your edge

Capital Cycle Thinking
A contrarian map to industry timing

A Loser's Game
You don't need to hit big winners, just avoid catastrophic losses

The Art of Contrary Thinking

Truth is rarely found in the crowd

📚 Economics & Macro

First Principles for Navigating Markets

U
A

📊 Valuation Tools & Models

Estimating value, pricing risk, and judging capital efficiency

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
The gold standard

Relative Valuation - Comparable company analysis

Dividend Discount Model (DDM) - For stable, cash-returning businesses
 

PEG, Growth, and Market Expectations

Using PEG and earnings yield to decode market expectations — with Nvidia as the case study.

Reverse DCF - What's already priced in?

EV/EBITDA and Friends - Measure of core performance

🧠 UK Investing

Intricacies of the UK market

👀 Open Interest

Ultra Research Lab

- A personal investment thesis on a web3 company

  Explore the stack, the thesis, and what comes next

INPP - Yield with a Margin of Safety

- Infrastructure. Income. Undervalued.

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📖 Essential Reads

The Education of a Value Investor
Personal growth and investment edge

The Most Important Thing
Risk means more things can happen than will happen

Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters

The blueprint for long-term outperformance

🎧 Podcasts

MacroVoices

- Interviews on macro, markets, and policy

We Study Billionaires

- Conversations with top investors and thinkers

Invest Like the Best

- Deep dives with founders and fund-managers

Intrinsic Value Podcast

- Valuation, markets, and investment thinking

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🎧 SuperInvestor Letters

Howard Marks - Oaktree Capital

Understanding risk when others chase return

Seth Klarman - Baupost

Margin of safety in an uncertain world

Nick Sleep - Nomad Partnership

Long-term thinking in a short-term world

Bill Ackman - Pershing Square

Conviction meets catalysis

Terry Smith - Fundsmith

Buy good companies. Don’t overpay. Do nothing

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👀 Technical

Multipl

- S&P500 Fact Sheets

Yardeni Research

- Market Research

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© SJMcCormick, 2022 | What are you doing down here? 

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